Informal presidential IQ estimate (Cox-style assessment)
A qualitative IQ estimate for a president outside Simonton 2006, assessed from the ages 18-26 biographical record using the logic of Cox's historiometric method. It is labeled Estimate and is not an administered IQ test.
Method and limits
Compiled a year-by-year chronology of intellectual achievements from ages 18 to 26 using public biographical sources. Compared each achievement to the age at which it would be expected in the general population, following the logic of Cox's (1926) historiometric method. Placed the president in the Simonton II-C distribution based on the strength of the evidence.
- No public test record supports this number.
- This is a qualitative assessment, not a formal Cox-style estimate with expert raters.
- No modernized achievement-age scale exists; comparisons are approximate.
- See the full evidence chronology at /stories/trump-iq-estimate/
Uncertainty: Assessed from public biographical records without a modernized achievement-age scale, expert personality ratings, or multiple independent raters. The result is more rigorous than a guess but lacks the validation of Simonton's methodology.